The 1993 CIA documents also highlighted India's clear military superiority over Pakistan. (This is an AI-generated image) New Delhi: With the tension mounting between India and Pakistan in the aftermath of the terror attack in Jammu and Kashmir's Pahalgam, all eyes are on New Delhi's move to avenge the death of 26 civilians. India has already made its intent clear that it's going to use all available means against Pakistan to ensure the cross-border terrorism at the behest of Islamabad-led outfits are completely wiped out.
As anticipation around India's military move to avenge the Pahalgam attack gains buzz, a 1993 CIA documents which have recently been declassified surfaced. The CIA documents had predicted a disaster for Pakistan if the two countries went to war. As per the declassified documents, a war between the two nations could destroy Pakistan military, if not the entire state.
The 1993 documents, which took an account of both India and Pakistan military might, further highlighted that chances of a full-blown war are only 20%. However, it warned that, in case of "spectacular terror outrage", things could change drastically. The 1993 National Intelligence Estimate, titled " India-Pakistan: Prospects for War in the 1990s " — declassified following an appeal by the National Security Archive — concluded that India had no strategic incentive to initiate war, while Pakistan, having lost the previous conflict, feared that another war could lead to the collapse of its military or even the state itself.
The 1993 assessment also took into account the prospect of a nuclear war and observed that Pakistan saw the weapon as a deterrent and insurance against India. "Pakistan sees nuclear weapons primarily as a deterrent and as insurance for its survival if a conflict developed with conventionally superior India," read the document. "Rapid Indian military improvements would strain Pakistan's ability to remain competitive.
Islamabad would feel even more threatened by India's growing military edge and would rely more heavily on nuclear deterrence. As a last resort, a desperate government in Islamabad also might consider an extreme measure such as openly deploying nuclear weapons," the CIA said in the secret 1993 report. The documents also highlighted India's clear military superiority over Pakistan.
The secret report also hinted at a possibility of India's military action "to close infiltration routes along the Line of Control or to punish Pakistan for supporting terrorism". Meanwhile, India has already announced a five-prong offensive against Pakistan after the Pahalgam terror attack 5-Big Steps By India After Pahalgam Terror Attack The overall strength of the Pakistani and Indian high commissions will be brought down to 30 from the present 55 through further reductions, to be effected by May 1. Pakistani nationals will not be permitted to travel to India under the SAARC visa exemption scheme (SVES) and any Pakistani national currently in India under it SVES visa has 48 hours to leave India.
The CCS decided that the Indus Waters Treaty of 1960 will be held in abeyance with immediate effect until Pakistan credibly and irrevocably abjures its support for cross-border terrorism, Misri said. The Indus Waters Treaty, brokered by the World Bank to share the waters of cross-border rivers, is considered to be the most durable pact between the two sides. The integrated Attari-Wagah checkpost will be closed with immediate effect.
It is the only operational land border crossing between the two countries. Misri said that those who have crossed over with valid endorsements may return through that route before May 1. India will be withdrawing its Defence, Navy and Air advisors from the Indian High Commission in Islamabad.
The CCS also decided that the DEfence, Military, Naval and Air advisors in the Pakistani High Commission in Delhi will be declared persona non grata. They have one week time to leave India.
