The third week of April has seen a very geo-economic and strategic visit by Chinese President Xi Jinping to Vietnam, Malaysia and Cambodia. Although his visit was scheduled months ago, it fell at an opportune moment for Beijing, with the international trade system in disarray because of the actions of US President Donald Trump. On April 2, Trump launched his tariff onslaught, unveiling steep "reciprocal" duties on goods coming into the US from most of its trading partners, including 49 per cent tariffs on products from Cambodia, 46 per cent on those coming from Vietnam and between 20-30 per cent on most other Southeast Asian countries.

The tariff turmoil has hit trade and investment flows as well as financial markets. Most countries, including in Southeast Asia, are currently predicting a major global economic downturn. Several agencies have cut their growth forecasts for the region this year.

Writing in Vietnam's Nhan Dan newspaper ahead of his visit to the country, Xi Jinping said that countries should work to advance a "comprehensive and inclusive global economic globalization. Trade wars and tariff wars yield no winners, and protectionism offers no solutions. There is a need to resolutely protect the multilateral trading system, sustain the stability of global production and supply chains, and maintain an open and cooperative international environment."

He also noted that at a time of rising unilateralism and protectionism, China's economy has remained a "key driver of the world economy." In this context, he also added that "China will persist in high-level openness, creating more opportunities for the world and also contributing to shared development with other countries through its own high-quality development." At a meeting with Vietnam's Communist Party General Secretary Lam after his arrival, Xi said that their two countries "have brought the world valuable stability and certainty" in a "turbulent world.

"The world is "standing at the turning point of history," Xi said, and China and Southeast Asian states "should move forward with joint hands." In this context, Professor Zachary Abuza of the National War College in Washington, has observed that the Chinese leader is pushing on "an open door. "Xi has portrayed China, which has over US Dollar 980 billion in trade with Southeast Asia, as a force for economic stability and multilateralism.

In contrast to Washington, Xi Jinping is presenting Beijing itself as predictable, cooperative, and committed to win-win trade and investment." It may be also noted here that Vietnam is the biggest buyer of Chinese goods in the region, with imports from China surging more than 30 per cent to US Dollar 144 billion in 2024, according to the General Department of Vietnam Customs. Malaysian King Sultan Ibrahim and Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim officially received the Chinese President Xi Jinping on his arrival in Malaysia.

Sultan Ibrahim welcomed Xi in a colourful ceremony at the golden-domed Istana Negara palace before his meeting with Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim at the administrative capital of Putrajaya. It was apparent that Chinese President Xi Jinping met Malaysia's King Sultan Ibrahim in Kuala Lumpur as part of a regional push to shore up Beijing's trade relationships. This diplomatic step marked the second leg of Xi's three-nation tour.

Xi touted a "new golden era" of Chinese-Malaysian relations, following the 50th anniversary of diplomatic ties last year. The king announced new cooperation between the countries in various fields, including artificial intelligence. "This is a hugely significant visit," said Al Jazeera's Rob McBride, reporting from Putrajaya.

"It takes place during this unprecedented trade war that is developing with the United States, with both Malaysia and China finding themselves in the middle." Khoo Ying Hooi, an Associate Professor in the department of international and strategic studies at Malaya University, also observed that the visit offered a chance to "test the waters for regional solidarity" amid the US trade disruptions. "It's not just about friendship, it's about realigning the regional centre of gravity towards Beijing," she said.

Malaysia is the current chair of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) bloc, whose members appear to be the hardest affected by new US tariffs. ASEAN member Vietnam, a manufacturing powerhouse, was slapped with 46 per cent tariffs, and Cambodia, a significant producer of low-cost clothing for big Western brands, was hit with a 49 per cent duty. Malaysia, Southeast Asia's third-largest economy, was hit with a relatively lower tariff of 24 per cent.

Though the measures have been paused for 90 days, President Trump has also warned that no country is "off the hook". McBride said Malaysia, a longstanding US ally, was likely "genuinely alarmed to find itself on this list of reciprocal tariffs" and saw it as "a wake-up call to deepen ties with its biggest trading partner", China. The visit and the way the Chinese President received honour also indicated that Malaysia has not overlooked the fact that despite robust economic ties, the two countries have had tensions over the South China Sea, where Beijing claims authority over waters also claimed by Kuala Lumpur.

McBride furthrer added that in Asia Pacific generally, countries that usually align with the US economic model are increasingly turning to Beijing as a reliable trade partner. After his arrival Chinese President Xi Jinping met with Cambodia's Prime Minister Hun Manet in Phnom Penh and underlined that China seeks to bolster regional trade ties to offset the effect of steep United States tariffs. Xi was greeted by Cambodia's King Norodom Sihamoni during a military welcome ceremony as he touched down in the capital.

Meas Soksensan, a spokesman for the Cambodian Ministry of Economy and Finance, told the Reuters news agency on the eve of Xi's arrival that "we expect more cooperation on infrastructure development". He was obviously referring to Cambodia expecting Beijing to announce financial support for the 180km Funan Techo Canal, originally planned to be 180 km, but now reduced to 151.6 km — the country's most ambitious infrastructure project. So far, China has made no public financial commitment to Cambodia's canal project, while Phnom Penh has changed its statements on Chinese engagement from covering 100 per cent to 49 per cent of total costs, estimated at $1.7bn.

It will now be financed through a public-private partnership with Cambodian investors holding a 51 per cent stake and Chinese investors holding 49 per cent. Such anticipation has arisen because Phnom Penh is a close partner of China, which has invested billions of US Dollars in various projects, including roads and airports. It is also the country's largest creditor.

One has to remember that Cambodia is a major exporter of clothing and footwear to the US, with half of these companies owned by Chinese business owners. In such a scenario, Phnom Penh has been slapped with a US tariff rate of 49 per cent, one of the highest globally – though most duties were paused until July. It is understood that though Cambodia is trying to negotiate a reduction in the tariff rate imposed on them, Xi Jinping apparently reminded them that both countries were friends, and Cambodia should not want to cut any deals at Beijing's expense.

It also needs to be mentioned that China has also commended Cambodia's efforts to cracking down on illegal online gambling and telecom fraud in their joint statement. In an article published in the Cambodian media, Xi also urged Phnom Penh to oppose "hegemonism" and "protectionism" which had been reiterated earlier during the first two legs of his trip to Vietnam and Malaysia. At this juncture it may be noted that China is Cambodia's biggest trading partner and source of investment, and more than a third of Cambodia's US Dollar 11billion in foreign debt is owed to China, according to the International Monetary Fund.

Such a situation has led Chheang Vannarith, a political analyst to observe that Xi's visit to Phnom Penh marks "a new milestone in the bilateral relationship". He said expectations are high for greater cooperation on infrastructure projects, as well as trade, development, tourism, technology and other sectors. To Cambodia, China is very critical in socioeconomic development and poverty reduction.

Cambodia is trying to diversify its export products and export markets in order to reduce a risk of over-reliance on the US market. China is emerging to be another key destination for Cambodian exports." Vannarith has also added that Cambodia is expecting to increase its exports to China in response to tariff pressure from US President Donald Trump.

It needs to be noted that Beijing signed no new loans to Cambodia last year, according to Cambodian official data, a marked contrast with previous years when it lent the country hundreds of millions of US Dollars. The drop in funding came as China reduced overall overseas investments amid domestic economic woes and concerns over unsuccessful projects. Despite this, Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Manet, has conveyed that the two countries had "common interests based on the principles of respect for sovereignty, equality, and noninterference in internal affairs".

He has also acknowledged that China had played a "pivotal role" in Cambodia's socioeconomic development. Nevertheless, one denotation is clear within the current paradigm. China and the leaders of the three countries visited by the Chinese President all realise that they need to find common denominators so that they can move forward in their quest for socio-economic development amidst the matrix of national security.

Muhammad Zamir, a former Ambassador, is an analyst specialised in foreign affairs, right to information and good governance. muhammadzamir0@gmail.comK