Open this photo in gallery: U.S. Vice President JD Vance speaks at the 20th annual National Catholic Prayer Breakfast in Washington, on Feb. 28. Vance converted to Catholicism in 2019.TING SHEN/AFP/Getty Images Ian Buruma is the author, most recently, of Spinoza: Freedom’s Messiah. Some popes are perfectly suited to their times.

The progressive Pope John XXIII initiated the Vatican II reforms – an attempt to modernize the church – just as the Beatles were setting the world alight. Pope John Paul II was the right man to hasten the crumbling Soviet empire’s demise. Will Pope Francis’s successor be a reactionary figure to match the populist mood of our Trumpian era?

This seems unlikely, given that Francis selected many of the cardinals who will decide the matter. But some influential right-wing Catholics will do their best to push back against the late pontiff’s most progressive stances; not least, his opposition to U.S. President Donald Trump’s harsh immigration policies. Many of these ultra-conservative lobbyists are Americans who have embraced Mr. Trump’s “Make America Great Again” movement.

These well-connected and well-financed MAGA Catholics include Steve Bannon, who denounced Francis as an anti-American Marxist and rebuked him for his compassionate response to migration. Roger Stone, another radical Catholic in Mr. Trump’s orbit, believes that “it’s warm where [Francis] is right now.” What happened to American Catholics, who were once regarded as a relatively liberal Christian community? In 1960, nearly 80 per cent of Catholics voted for John F. Kennedy, not just because he would be the first Catholic president of the United States, but also because they liked his politics.

In 2020, only 49 per cent of Catholics voted for Joe Biden, a far more devout Catholic than JFK was. Of course, there is no such thing as a “Catholic vote,” any more than there is a “Jewish vote.” But there has been a remarkable shift toward more radical right-wing politics among many American Catholics. This trend is partly a response to a decades-long decline in organized religion in the U.S.

Fewer young people are interested in becoming Catholic priests, and those who do are more conservative. According to a report by the Catholic University of America, 68 per cent of priests ordained between 1965 and 1969 regarded themselves as somewhat or very “theologically progressive.” Today, nearly 85 per cent claim they are “conservative” or even “very conservative.” But there are other reasons. The Democrats used to rely on the votes of less-educated white Christians, especially in the southern states.

Despite being culturally conservative, they supported socially progressive economic policies that were in their interests. Then came the 1960s, with sex, drugs, and – perhaps most importantly – civil rights for Black Americans. Many Catholics defected to the Republicans, who promised a cultural and social counter-revolution: law and order, family values, and – in veiled terms – the maintenance of white supremacy.

This drew them into Richard Nixon’s “silent majority,” and in even larger numbers to Mr. Trump’s MAGA movement. The Catholics who voted for Mr. Trump in 2024 were largely white, while those who voted against him were Black or Hispanic. There are still progressive American Catholics, including prominent cardinals and bishops.

But the increasing influence of Catholic public figures who want to reverse the social and cultural changes of the last century is striking. Five U.S. Supreme Court justices are conservative Catholics, as is Vice-President JD Vance, who converted in 2019. The Christian counter-revolution is partly driven by theology.

Catholics care deeply about abortion because of their belief that human life begins at conception. Evangelicals used to care less about this, before joining forces with Catholics over the question of religious schools. Anti-abortion was the ideological cause, but the politics revolved around federal funding.

Equally important, evangelicals and Catholic conservatives have increasingly found common ground in the culture wars. On one side are the mostly well-educated, urban liberals who are open to heterodox views about sexual mores, immigration and gender preferences, but vigilant about racism, sexism, homophobia and xenophobia. On the other side are less-educated provincial and rural Americans who believe in church, a biological definition of gender, and the right to bear arms.

They see anti-racism as a threat to their social position. This division is largely a matter of class, as Barack Obama suggested in 2008, when he disparaged working-class voters in former industrial areas as people who “cling to their guns or religion.” Hillary Clinton made things worse in 2016 when she categorized half of Mr. Trump’s supporters as a “basket of deplorables.” The connections made between different causes in the culture wars are not always logical, but that does not make them less powerful. In 2020, Mr. Trump claimed that Mr. Biden was “against God” and “against guns.” To an ultra-conservative culture warrior, the connection is clear: we love guns, so God must, too.

That such warriors now include many Catholics is, well, deplorable. Copyright: Project Syndicate, 2025. www.project-syndicate.org