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Soaring oil prices following Israel's airstrikes on Iran's nuclear facilities could turn out to be a boost for Russia's war effort. The Context Israel launched Operation Rising Lion against Iran's nuclear facilities in the early hours of Friday morning, in what Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said was "a targeted military operation to roll back the Iranian threat to Israel's very survival." Iran is expected to respond, after Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi called the attacks a "declaration of war."
This is a critical moment for the Middle East, but also for the rest of the world, as it has far-reaching consequences, including its affect on global oil prices. What To Know Brent crude oil prices were up almost 7 percent at $74.2 per barrel, said Reuters. They had been as high as 14 percent on Asian markets.
Prices were headed for their biggest daily rise since 2022, when Russia's invasion of Ukraine began, said the agency. This will be good news for Russia which, has been bracing for a budget shortfall with slumping oil prices, the Moscow Times reports. "Higher prices for Russia mean higher revenues," said Iulia-Sabina Joja, a European and Black Sea security expert working with the Middle East Institute.
"Moscow will benefit significantly from this surge, given how much of its exports and economy overall depend on oil exports and how much of Russia's war machine is fueled by energy exports," she told Newsweek. Janiv Shah, an analyst at the energy research company Rystad said: "The key question now is whether this oil rally will last longer than the weekend or a week. Our signal is that there is a lower probability of a full-blown war, and the oil price rally will likely encounter resistance."
Paul Salem, who specializes in international engagement at the Middle East Institute, said that while there is "no doubt" that oil prices will help Putin's revenues, it may be temporary and there may not be a "long-term effect." Smoke rises after an explosion in Tehran, Iran, Friday, June 13, 2025. Israel attacked Iran's capital early Friday, with explosions booming across Tehran.
Smoke rises after an explosion in Tehran, Iran, Friday, June 13, 2025. Israel attacked Iran's capital early Friday, with explosions booming across Tehran. AP He told Newsweek there are other important aspects to this that Russian President Vladimir Putin has to consider, including how Iran, an ally to Moscow, has now been "degraded."
Salem predicts that this attack may push Iran to make a deal with the U.S, "the outlines of which might be that Iran accepts to forgo enrichment inside Iran, with a big deal with the U.S. and the U.S. lifts sanctions on Iran and that could obviously lead to a sudden and rapid decline in oil prices, so one has to keep that in mind." Whether Iran makes a deal with the U.S. or not, Moscow may lose access to the missiles, drones and other equipment Tehran was supplying. "Tehran has made itself indispensable to Russia, said Joja.
"The two countries have deepened their cooperation economically, politically and militarily. In exchange, Russia has backed Iran politically and diplomatically." What People Are Saying Matthew Haupt, portfolio manager at Wilson Asset Management, told Bloomberg: "We are seeing classical risk-off moves.
What we are watching now for is the speed and scale of the response from Tehran. That will shape the duration of the current moves. Quite often, these moves fade after the initial shocks."
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said in a statement about Israel's strikes: "Israel took unilateral action against Iran. We are not involved in strikes against Iran and our top priority is protecting American forces in the region. Israel advised us that they believe this action was necessary for its self-defense.
President Trump and the Administration have taken all necessary steps to protect our forces and remain in close contact with our regional partners. Let me be clear: Iran should not target U.S. interests or personnel." Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi called Israel's strikes "tantamount to a declaration of war" in a letter to the United Nations, saying: "Israel, the world's most terrorist regime, has now crossed all red lines, and the international community must not allow these crimes to go unpunished.
"The Security Council and the Secretary-General must immediately and unequivocally condemn this attack and take action … Israel will deeply regret this reckless aggression and the great strategic miscalculations it has committed." What Happens Next It remains to be seen how long oil prices will stay high and what affect that will have, all of which will be affected by Iran's next steps and action taken in response.
