Russian President Vladimir Putin chairs a meeting of the Military-Industrial Commission at the Kremlin on April 23, 2025. Despite international calls for direct peace talks, the Kremlin had always responded with a resounding “niet”. But in a change of heart on Monday, Russian President Vladimir Putin said he would be open to bilateral peace talks with the “Kyiv regime”.

“The recent comments from the Kremlin really do mark the first time [since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022] … a willingness from Putin to negotiate with Ukraine,” explains Will Kingston-Cox, Russia researcher for the International Team for the Study of Security in Verona. Courting Trump's favour Putin has always refused to negotiate directly with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who he baselessly describes as the leader of a “neo-Nazi regime”, notes Russia expert Jeff Hawn at the London School of Economics. Moscow has pushed propaganda such as saying a key war objective was to overthrow the Ukrainian government and ward off “Nazi” threats.

But the Russian president’s about-face on Monday does not mean his opinion of Zelensky has changed. By saying he was ready to speak to the “Kyiv regime” rather than the Ukrainian government or Ukrainian authorities, Putin made a semantic choice “to imply [Zelensky’s government] is not legitimate”, says Hawn. Putin may be swapping kamikaze drones for an olive branch just to prove he’s making an effort for US President Donald Trump.

The administration has repeatedly threatened to walk away from peace talks if progress is not made soon. “He wants to highlight to Trump that Russia is willing to negotiate,” says Stephen Hall, a political scientist at the University of Bath specialising in Russian affairs. The threat of the US pulling out was reiterated by Vice President JD Vance on Wednesday.

“We’ve issued a very explicit proposal [to both sides],” he told reporters in India. “It’s time for them either to say ‘yes’, or for the US to walk away.” Read moreUS will 'walk away' unless Russia and Ukraine agree to peace deal, VP Vance warns And time may be of the essence. US, UK and French representatives were meant to gather in London on Wednesday for discussions with Ukrainian officials on a possible ceasefire, but plans were abruptly changed after a Russian strike in eastern Ukraine killed at least nine people.

Only lower-ranking officials would meet instead, including the White House Special Envoy for Ukraine and Russia Keith Kellogg, who is said to have a one-page document with him containing Trump’s “final offer”, according to US news site Axios . Putin’s decision “is very much a publicity [stunt]. And it’s a message to one man,” says Hawn.

To Russia with love When it comes to the reality on the ground, Russian forces are still grinding out progress on the front line in the east of Ukraine. Militarily speaking, “Ukraine is not really in a good position right now,” says Hawn. It seems more likely that Russia would pursue this military advantage than opt for a reversal.

Moscow has already proven that it does not feel obliged to keep its promises. After rejecting a US-Ukrainian offer for a full and unconditional ceasefire last month, Putin announced a surprise Easter truce over the weekend. But “it was broken [shortly after]”, says Hall.

Ukraine claimed 59 instances of Russian shelling on Sunday. Still, experts suggest Russia may actually be prepared to speak to Ukraine. “They want to gain a bit of control over the situation.

Outsourcing peace [talks] to the US alone may reflect poorly in more conservative or nationalist circles,” says Kingston-Cox. And the contents of Trump’s “final offer” might also move the needle. Terms laid out in the US proposal are said to include an official recognition of Crimea as part of Russia, and an unofficial recognition of four other regions in eastern Ukraine as Russian territory – something Zelensky has firmly ruled out.

“There is nothing to talk about. This violates our constitution,” the Ukrainian president told reporters during a press briefing on Tuesday, reiterating his stance. The US plan would also assure Russia that Ukraine would not become part of NATO, Axios reported, and that sanctions against Russia would be eased.

Read moreHow US peace plan for Ukraine and Russia might look The White House has neither confirmed nor denied details of the plan reported by US media. “Putin got [almost] everything he wanted from Trump,” says Hawn. “If he goes into direct talks with Ukraine, the US could pressure Kyiv into accepting a deal.” It would also be a way to “cut Europe out of negotiations”, adds Kingston-Cox.

Since Trump took power in January, Ukraine’s European allies have formed a new front to compensate for the US suspending military aid to Kyiv. French President Emmanuel Macron held rare talks in Paris last week to revive stalled ceasefire efforts and take stock of peace negotiations so far. The watered-down talks in London on Wednesday were set to push similar efforts.

Putin may think it wise to accelerate direct talks with Kyiv before Europe’s “ coalition of the willing ” throws its full weight behind Ukraine. An olive branch with thorns But it may also be a trap. “Zelensky has put himself in a difficult place by [refusing] to negotiate with Putin.

And it would be a significant climbdown to sit in the same room as Russian delegates,” says Hall. “If he continues to say he won’t sit down with the Russians, then it’s quite easy for Trump to say, well, you guys don’t want peace.” Hawn notes that some of the compromises reportedly on offer are simply no-go areas for Kyiv. “Ukraine could never accept a deal that would give Russia part control of the Donbas and Crimea,” Hawn says.

Zelensky has, time and again, reiterated his desire for a 30-day ceasefire and is starkly opposed to many of the terms outlined in the US proposal. “Putin will then be able to claim that at least he tried,” says Hall. © France Médias Monde graphic studio Moscow may simply be trying to orchestrate an end to the war on its own terms.

“The international order is pretty tired of the war. [And] Russia doesn’t want to become this pariah state forever,” says Kingston-Cox. “Being seen as willing to discuss, that's all for [show].

If Ukraine doesn't negotiate on Putin's terms, the Kremlin can then frame itself as the peacemaker." Though it is unlikely Putin’s peace overtures would be taken seriously in Europe, Kingston-Cox says, “his message would be heard in countries like China or India”.