Canada Elections 2025: Has Trump’s Economic War Given Liberal Party An Edge Over Conservatives? Curated By : News18.com Edited By: Shilpy Bisht Last Updated: April 23, 2025, 08:30 IST Polls show PM Mark Carney ahead in the race, while Pierre Poilievre’s hopes to shepherd his Conservative Party back into power for the first time in a decade seem dashed Donald Trump has said he is not concerned that his trade war with Canada was boosting the Liberal Party ahead of the elections, but he did say he was not a fan of Conservative's Pierre Poilievre, who is a key candidate for PM's post. (AFP File Photo) Canadians will vote on April 28 to choose their next government, after two-term prime minister Justin Trudeau stepped down over his waning popularity, and former banker Mark Carney appointed for the top job last month instead.
Polls show Carney ahead in the race, while Pierre Poilievre’s hopes to shepherd his Conservative Party back into power for the first time in a decade seem dashed. related stories Let us find out where Liberals and Conservatives stand, what are the polls suggesting, what the next government would mean for Canada, and particularly the ties with the US. Where Do Liberals And Conservatives Stand?
A recent Ipsos poll conducted for Global News shows both Liberal and Conservative separated by just a few points while advance polls suggest a record turnout. Conservative’s Poilievre, who was once touted to lead Canada, seems to be having a tough time after his Trump-like campaign not seem to mirror with the Canadian population, who are already infuriated with the US president’s frequent attacks on their economy. Like Trump, Poilievre brags about the size of the crowd at his campaign rallies and attacks the mainstream media.
Reports say that Poilievre is imploring Canadians not to give the Liberals a fourth term after “a lost Liberal decade." He hoped to make the election a referendum on Trudeau, whose popularity declined towards the end of his decade in power as food and housing prices rose and immigration surged. Meanwhile, Carney’s election as leader has boosted the Liberals’ position, especially regarding Trump’s threats against Canada.
Trump has mellowed down against Canada since speaking with Carney. What Do Polls Suggest? The latest Ipsos poll indicates the Liberals are ahead by three points, with 41 % of surveyed Canadians saying they would vote Liberal, while 38% back the Conservative.
The New Democrats have 12% support, the Bloc Quebecois 5% nationally, but 25% in Quebec. The Green Party and the People’s Party of Canada each have 2% support. The three-point gap between the Liberals and Conservatives is within the poll’s 3.8% margin of error, making it too close to call the election.
While most Canadians prefer a majority government, the tightening race reduces those odds and indicate a hung Parliament, according to the pollster. Carney and Poilievre remain the top choices for prime minister, with 41% and 36% support, respectively. Voters are split on who won the leaders’ debates, with 57% having watched or heard about them.
What Does The Next PM Mean For US-Canada Relations? The Associated Press reported Trump as saying that he is not concerned that his trade war with Canada was boosting the Liberal Party ahead of the parliamentary elections. Although he said Poilievre’s views are more aligned than Carney’s with his own, he’s not a fan of Poilievre.
“The conservative that’s running is stupidly no friend of mine," Trump has said, criticizing Poilievre for “saying negative things." Poilievre, like Carney, said if he is elected, he would accelerate renegotiations of the free trade deal with the US. He also wants Trump to suspend US tariffs during the talks.
He said Trump should “knock off" his attacks on Canada, but that “nobody can control this president." Poilievre has also vowed to de-fund the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation, the public broadcaster and a cultural institution in Canada. He wants to cut taxes and hopes to approve pipelines that would diversify oil exports.
He has also promised to be tough on crime and has denounced “woke-ism." The US and Canada have two of the world’s most interconnected economies, with over $2 billion in daily trade flows between the countries. Tariffs on Canadian goods — especially steel, aluminium, lumber and energy — will affect American jobs, particularly in auto manufacturing, construction and agriculture.
Trump’s tariffs on Canada could put over 500,000 US jobs at risk, and rising raw materials costs will force businesses to either pass the costs onto consumers or cut jobs, making everyday goods more expensive. As Washington works to reduce dependence on China for critical materials, Canada plays a crucial role, supplying $47 billion worth of minerals to the US, over 50% of total American mineral imports. The Carney-led government will likely push for stronger investment in the critical minerals sector and expand its role in the supply chains.
Therefore, deeper US-Canada cooperation in this area could also strengthen North America’s competitive edge against China’s mineral dominance, as per The Hill. Important Things To Note About Canada Elections Who Votes: All Canadian citizens, including prisoners and people who live outside the country, are eligible to vote. However, the chief electoral officer cannot cast a ballot during his or her 10-year tenure.
The next Parliament will have 343 members, an increase of five since the last election because of population growth. How To Vote: Most Canadians have received a card in the mail indicating their polling stations for four days of advanced voting, which began on April 18. People who live outside of Canada have until April 22 to apply for a mail-in ballot.
top videos View all Swipe Left For Next Video View all When To Know About Results: Canada has six time zones, but poll closing times are staggered so that most of them shut at 9:30 pm Eastern time regardless of where they are. The Westernmost province British Columbia closes half an hour later, at 10 pm Eastern time. The results of the election will, most likely, be known on the evening of April 28.
Canada uses paper ballots that are counted by hand at every polling station, by employees of Elections Canada. How Is The PM Elected: The party that emerges as a winner gets to form the government. The leader of the party that forms the government becomes prime minister, and he or she then chooses a cabinet, usually from the party’s members in the House of Commons.
The PM need not be the member of Parliament. First Published: April 23, 2025, 08:30 IST
