Bitcoin maintained a stable position above $80,000 as both cryptocurrency and stock market investors exhibited caution in anticipation of Donald Trump’s upcoming Liberation Day tariff address.
Currently, Bitcoin (BTC) is valued at $84,500, reflecting a 10% increase since its March low. In contrast, futures for the U.S. stock market indicated a downward trend, with the Dow Jones and Nasdaq 100 falling by more than 300 points.
As Liberation Day approaches, all eyes are on Trump’s speech, set to take place in the Rose Garden. He is anticipated to announce reciprocal tariffs affecting numerous countries, including the European Union, China, India, and Japan.
Analysts have raised concerns that these tariffs may usher in a significant recession this year, with Goldman Sachs and PIMCO increasing their predictions of economic downturn to 35%. A recession could likely stem from reduced business investments and declining consumer spending.
While one might expect Bitcoin’s value to drop following the announcement of tariffs, historical patterns suggest that both BTC and the stock market may rebound instead.
There are three core reasons behind this outlook. First, market participants have likely already accounted for the Liberation Day tariffs, given Trump’s commentary over the past few weeks. Consequently, the market may react positively to the news once it’s formally delivered.
A relevant example comes from Bitcoin’s performance surrounding Trump’s inauguration: the price surged to a record high prior to his taking office but subsequently decreased once he was in power.
Second, Bitcoin has consistently endured significant challenges. It not only survived but prospered during the COVID-19 pandemic and throughout the stringent regulatory landscape introduced by SEC Chair Gary Gensler. Gadi Chait, an investment manager at Xapo, noted in a communication to crypto.news that current market fears should be regarded as mere noise:
“Price fluctuations might unsettle speculators, but ultimately, Bitcoin is a long-term investment. Its true value lies in its inherent sovereignty, decentralization, and limited supply, rather than short-term price shifts. We have faced similar scenarios before, and we will again, but Bitcoin’s long-term direction remains clear.”
Lastly, a recession might unexpectedly benefit Bitcoin and other risk assets, as it could lead the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates and reintroduce quantitative easing.
On the technical front, Bitcoin’s price chart reveals encouraging patterns. The weekly analysis indicates the formation of an ascending channel, with BTC currently positioned near its lower boundary. The last occurrence of this level was in August of the previous year when it subsequently surged to a new all-time high.
Bitcoin is also trading above the 50-week moving average, signaling further optimism for the asset. It is likely that BTC will rebound, with potential aspirations of reaching $100,000 in the upcoming weeks. However, a dip below the lower boundary of the channel would undermine this positive outlook.
