3 Things to Watch as Congress Turns to the Budget This Week

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Congress returned to Washington on Monday after a two-week recess and the race to convert the House-passed budget blueprint into law is on. The self-imposed Memorial Day deadline means that Republican lawmakers will spend their first week back busy with committee markups on the sweeping budget bill that will include sweeping provisions on energy, tax and the border. House Speaker Mike Johnson, along with Senate Majority Leader John Thune, Senate Finance Chair Mike Crapo of Idaho, House Ways and Means Chair Jason Smith of Missouri and National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett, will meet with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent at the Capitol on Monday to get on the same page on the legislation.

Johnson will also meet with President Donald Trump at the White House. While some progress was made over the two-week recess regarding tax issues, ongoing arguments over spending cuts and changes to safety-net programs – combined with Thune’s comments Monday afternoon saying a vote later in the summer is more realistic – are jeopardizing Johnson’s chance of a timely passage. Get Midday Must-Reads in Your Inbox Five essential stories, expertly curated, to keep you informed on your lunch break.

Sign Up Sign up to receive the latest updates from U.S. News & World Report and our trusted partners and sponsors. By clicking submit, you are agreeing to our Terms and Conditions & Privacy Policy. Here’s a look at three policy debates that lawmakers will consider in the coming days.

1. Cuts to Safety Net Programs The budget proposal would require the House Energy and Commerce Committee, which oversees Medicaid and part of Medicare, to slash $880 billion over a decade and the Agriculture Committee, which oversees the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, to slash $230 billion. The figures laid out in the blueprint do not name any specific program, raising questions about what will be cut to comply with the steep orders.

Republicans in the House have long maintained that both Medicaid and SNAP will not be touched, with some accusing Democrats of using the idea to scare voters. But analysts and the Congressional Budget Office have said the targets cannot be met without trimming those two programs in a meaningful way. There are currently 71.8 million Americans enrolled in Medicaid and 42 million who rely on SNAP.

An analysis from the Commonwealth Fund found that a combined reduction in both programs could equal more than $1.1 trillion over the next ten years, leading to the loss of more than 1 million jobs and a hit of $113 billion to state economies by 2026. Lawmakers are already seeing the fallout as angry constituents flock to townhalls to voice their concerns. To curb some of the vitriol, the White House is now cautioning lawmakers against touching SNAP.

2. Scope of Tax Cuts Another uphill battle for Republicans is the scope of tax cuts as they eye extending major portions of the 2017 Trump tax cuts which are set to expire at the end of the year. Extending the cuts is expected to cost $4.6 trillion over the next decade, according to the Congressional Budget Office, but even how much it costs is hotly debated.

Republican leaders are looking to employ a different scoring method that would set the cost of extending the tax cuts at $0 because they are already law. This would amount to a far-reaching change to the budget process and would rely on the “current policy” baseline method. Democrats argue the change obscures the impact to the deficit and is a policy change as major as getting rid of the filibuster.

Lawmakers are also considering a campaign promise from Trump to end taxes on tips and potentially even overtime pay. But addressing both would likely raise the cost of the bill. Ironing out the tax cuts is expected to be one of the bigger fights Congress will face during the appropriations process, as deficit hawks continue to demand that any tax cuts be paired with steep reductions in spending.

3. Canceling Funds for the State Department, USAID and Public Broadcasting Trump’s request to claw back $9.3 billion in federal funding for public broadcasting, foreign aid initiatives and other programs is expected to go to Congress sometime this week. Once it comes, a 45-day countdown, minus recess, will begin for both chambers to pass a package codifying the cancellation of the funds.

If Congress fails to act in that timeframe, Trump will be legally required to disburse the funds. Trump signalled his intent to ask Congress to cancel funds already allocated to the State Department, USAID and the taxpayer-backed Corporation for Public Broadcasting before the two-week recess. If approved, the proposal would cut around two years worth of funding to the outlets, which could essentially eliminate all federal funding to them and cripple them in the process.

Photos: President Trump's First 100 Days View All 40 Images Other Key Policy Debates to Watch in the House:

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